Photo by Julia Taubitz on Unsplash

Introduction

Climate change is already ruining millions of working-class lives across the globe, and increasingly threatening our homes, health, food supplies and safety here in the UK.  Radical changes are needed to stave off the worst impacts, and whilst these will affect every work sector and every community, the energy sector¹ has a critical role to play.

1. Transition away from fossil fuels to renewables as quickly as possible.
2. Protect the jobs of workers in energy, supply chains and associated roles (and communities generally) as we move from fossil fuels to renewables.
3. Provide cheap renewable energy that can be afforded by all.

Despite the dire warnings about the consequences², we are nowhere near doing any of these.  In the UK, the Labour government has made some nods towards each of these points³ without fully embracing transition as the engine of social and economic justice, equality and rejuvenation that it could be.  There are a number of explanations for this, including:

1. Labour’s ‘business as usual’ approach to governance prioritises technical solutions done TO people instead of governing in the campaign mode that’s needed, in which the population is fully informed and mobilised to become creative actors in the social green transition at all levels.
2. The immense weight of the US, pushing hard to sabotage the energy transition and retain ‘global energy dominance’ based on fossil fuels and militarisation, applying direct state to state pressure at government level while sponsoring subservient local political formations like Reform, Restore, Tommy Robinson and the Conservative Party as local agents of disinformation and mobilisation.

Keep the North Sea Working Campaign

One consequence of these currents is that they set a context within which some trade unions see the prevailing winds at the top and decide that they must travel in the same direction if they are to fulfil their purpose of protecting jobs⁴.  So Unite is currently pursuing a policy of ‘Keep the North Sea Working’⁵ through an expansion of oil and gas operations, as an extension of its ‘no ban without a plan’ campaign.

Unite wrote to leaders of all political parties ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary Elections asking if they back the campaign to Keep the North Sea Working and support the delivery of a No Compulsory Redundancy Pledge.  We firmly support the latter as a critical plank in a Just Transition but arguing that ‘keeping the North Sea working’ through expanded oil and gas production including pushing ahead with the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields’ raises expectations among workers that cannot be met. 

While these comments will resonate with members worried about what the future will bring, and that they might have a future in fossil fuel extraction if only the government would cease its attacks on the North Sea.

The approach is fundamentally flawed, even if we leave the disastrous impact on the planet of the continued extraction of fossil fuels aside and focus solely on jobs.

Why the North Sea is Closing Down Not Opening Up

Jobs in the North Sea have been declining at a rate of about 950 a month since 1999⁶.  The projection that they will halve, from 115,000 to around 64,000, by the early 2030s does not accelerate that trend.  This is not so much falling off a cliff as sliding down a pretty steep slope with no chance of slowing it down, a slide that’s been going on for 27 years.  The only lifeline is to get off the slope onto the renewables that are, bizarrely, being blamed.  Oil and gas will keep smaller and smaller parts of the North Sea working regardless of how much investment might be put in.

• The job losses are coming because the North Sea basin is running dry⁷. Current oil production is 25% of what it was in 1999.
• 93% of what was in there has been ‘drained dry’ already.
• Government data shows that 4.1 billion tonnes of oil has been extracted in the UK since 1975, with the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) projecting a further 218 million tonnes out to 2050 from existing fields.
• These projections also suggest that new drilling could yield another 74 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.7% of the total that could be extracted from 1975 to 2050.

The bald comparison indicates that any idea that there is sufficient oil to meet current demand is absurd, as is any notion that additional investment will be sufficient to save the industry, jobs or communities.

For gas, the UK has produced 33,421 TWh since commercial operations began in 1967, with projected production out to 2050 of a further 2,060 TWh from existing fields and up to an extra 381 TWh (1.1% of the total) from new drilling.

If it was profitable to drill baby drill into what’s left, they would be doing it.  As it is they are not, because gas in the North Sea costs four times as much to ‘lift’ as it does in Qatar⁸.

So, the jobs crisis in the North Sea is not primarily a matter of industrial or climate policy but of the exhaustion of the field, which makes continued profitable extraction increasingly marginal.  The policy issues are a matter of how to manage the decline, with increased investment making only a small difference to this.  You could overturn the ban on new investment and open up Rosebank and Jackdaw and we will still lose thousands of jobs; pretending otherwise is misleading members.  Rosebank would need 1600 workers to set it up in the short term and employ just 450 while in operation⁹, which is no lifeline at all when 1,000 jobs a month are being lost.  This makes the need for a PLAN for transition even more important.

What Kind of Long Term Future

This is not to paint a picture of gloom for energy workers and the communities they live in, but to point out that

• a campaign for ‘business as usual’ will not serve those workers or communities,
• hope for the future does not lie in reverting to the status quo under the Tories, which allowed lots of new licences but generated just 36 days’ worth of additional supply as a result¹⁰.
• Rather, hope lies in the transition to renewables that is desperately needed and demanding that the government ensures that the huge number of jobs that such a transition requires is actually forthcoming¹¹. This would include a large number in the manufacturing supply chain and decommissioning of redundant rigs, located where jobs are most needed. 

The only way to ‘Keep the North Sea Working’, at current levels of employment is to invest in renewable energy.  Jobs do not have to be exported if they are transferred, and that’s the plan we need, that all of us can fight for together.

The consequences if we don’t are:

1. We would become wholly dependent on imported energy, including hugely expensive US-made Liquefied Natural Gas¹², a prospect that has LNG corporations licking their lips in anticipation, and we’d continue to be vulnerable to global shocks (like the one we are currently experiencing with the war on Iran).
2. UK energy workers jobs would fall off a cliff edge – with no lifeline to grab hold of.
3. Fuel bills, already prohibitively high (the ‘eating or heating’ dilemma) would rise further.

And of course, the catastrophic impact of climate change would continue to fall primarily on the most vulnerable communities.

What We Should Be Campaigning For

There are 145,000 jobs in the renewables sector currently and growth to over 180,000 by 2035, much more if full government support is forthcoming¹³.  What unions need to demand is that this not happen haphazardly but in a planned way, including:

• job guarantees,
• no compulsory redundancies,
• training and reskilling of workers from the shrinking fossil fuel sector as they transfer to the growing renewables sector,
• unionisation and full recognition rights for what has been allowed to become, via a piecemeal private sector-led approach, a non-union work force.

That’s why we say the transition has to be just.

In so far as that isn’t happening currently, that’s a failure of governance and it’s what the whole labour movement needs to demand must happen¹⁴. 

This argument is about:

1. the danger to jobs from delaying the transition and failing to develop a worker-led plan to accelerate it and on terms that ensure workers don’t lose out, and
2. the serious danger to the working class as a whole from such a failure, in terms of the collapse of the real value of incomes and direct danger to life and wellbeing – especially of the most vulnerable – from climate chaos.

The current Unite leadership’s argument that ‘with no credible plan for jobs, it’s time to take a new approach that protects jobs, communities and our energy security’ does not actually spell out any demands for ‘a credible plan for jobs’ but, on the contrary, reasserts the business as usual scenario that has lost so many over the last quarter of a century.  There is no ‘new approach’ here.  When the ban on new oil and gas exploration was first announced by Labour in opposition, Sharon Graham pledged that Unite would come up with such a plan to press on the aspirant government.  That’s what we need to put to the government at the negotiating table.  We are still waiting for it.

What is needed is a proactive, worked out transition plan that addresses

• skills retention and development,
• where work can and should be located both to meet labour needs and to prevent local/regional crashes,
• direct support for workers transitioning,
• the technological and climate credentials of technologies and production processes,
• a recognition that it’s not all about offshore workers, nor the technically skilled, but about supply chains, social geographies, offshore workers in catering, cleaning, healthcare and admin, onshore workers in induced jobs along the supply chain – and all these factors are integrated¹⁵.

This plan should be negotiated between the government and the unions/workers/communities.  We need a Just Transition Commission to work this through.  In so far as they don’t do that, it should be being demanded by the unions/workers/communities involved, which is the basis for the deepest unity and broadest support, and the cutting edge we need.  Proper union resources should be put into it, across unions in each sector, recognising that implicit within that demand is the seed of a transformation of the state and how it operates¹⁶.

Conclusion

No amount of fiery, rousing language is going to halt or reverse the exhaustion of the North Sea.  The steady, inexorable decline in oil and gas jobs can only be counteracted by the fastest possible expansion of the renewables sector to secure a long term future for workers, accompanied by  the guarantees needed to underpin the transition – no compulsory redundancies, guaranteed jobs, pay to compensate for any transition gaps, the training and reskilling needed etc.

We should never forget that the people and Parties currently posing as the saviours of offshore oil and gas workers are the same people who shattered the mining communities in the 1980s and finished them off with Heseltine’s ‘dash for gas’ in the early 90s.  Their promises to save jobs by ‘opening up’ the North Sea are simply a lie.  A lie repeated often and loudly, but a lie all the same.  Follow them down that path, trash the transition and profits will be made in the short term, and more jobs will be lost, bills will get even higher, and more climate damage done.

Paul Atkin, Tahir Latif, Ellen Robottom (personal capacities)

[For a far more detailed analysis of the situation, please do read this excellent article, Factcheck: Nine false or misleading myths about North Sea oil and gas, from Carbon Brief, 25 March 2026, which also contains a multitude of links to the sources of the information cited here.]